Danny Knobler

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To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Posted on: July 8, 2008 7:58 pm
 

You're not supposed to be able to play for today AND tomorrow. It doesn't work that way.

You're supposed to have to pick. Go for it now, as the Brewers are doing. Pack it in and play for the future, a la the Indians.

But what about the A's? They just traded Rich Harden to the Cubs, but history (and the American League standings) tell us that they're not the Indians.

So does that mean they're nuts, dealing away a sometimes dominating pitcher (2.02 ERA over his last 10 starts) at a point where they're six games out in the American League West and 3 1/2 games back in the AL wild-card race?

No more so than when they dealt away Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder 3 1/2 years ago. No more so than when they traded away Dan Haren and Nick Swisher last winter.

At first glance, the A's take for Harden doesn't seem that great. Sean Gallagher, the guy they're calling the key to the deal, was ranked by Baseball America as the Cubs' fifth-best prospect entering the season. His numbers so far don't suggest that he's Harden.

But the A's were supposed to be taking a step down (at least for today) when they traded Haren last winter for a group that included Dana Eveland and Greg Smith (both already doing well in the Oakland rotation). They were supposed to be taking a step back when they traded Mulder for Haren back in December 2004.

They keep trading guys away (and perhaps Bobby Crosby will be next, once he gets healthy). They stay competitive.

They play for the future, as general manager Billy Beane says they're doing with today's deal. They do it without giving up on the present.

You're not supposed to be able to do it this way. But maybe the A's can.

They've done it before.

Reputation: 96
Level: Superstar
Since: Jan 15, 2008
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:11 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Well, far be it from me to question Mr. Moneyball.  But I am a Cubs fan and I have seen these guys play (except Donaldson).  Patterson and Gallagher are not going to set anyone's world on fire, now or next year.  Murton is a fair hitter with some pop, but he's also a lumbering stiff of an OF--in other words, perfect for the AL.

If Harden stays healthy, this is a horrible deal for Oakland.  Heck, Chad Gaudin is better than Gallagher probably ever will be.



Reputation: 98
Level: Superstar
Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:14 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

the Cubs took the A's to the showers at the local prison shower on this trade



Reputation: 80
Level: All-Star
Since: Jun 8, 2008
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:27 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

There is a really good chance that Harden doesn't even make it to the playoffs.  The guy is always hurt and is just about due for another stint on the DL.  I think this trade is a wash for both clubs.  Chicago is going to make the playoffs with or without this guy in the rotation.  Just surprised that a team that has had so much trouble in the past with Prior and Wood, would make a bid for Harden. 



Reputation: 98
Level: Superstar
Since: Oct 19, 2006
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:29 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Hard to question Beane's track record here, we'll see what the results say.  Remember, at some point Beane had to deal Harden anyway, so why not now when his stock is the highest it's been in a while?



Reputation: 44
Level: Rookie
Since: Jul 8, 2008
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:31 pm

OK, but is this really the best answer?

So, let me get this straight...you're saying this is a good deal by Billy Beane because his other deals have turned out well?  Not exactly crackerjack analysis, is it?  Besides, the trades quoted in this article (Hudson, Mulder, Haren) were all of high-level pitchers in their prime.  Aren't you supposed to get high quality players in return for that?  Now, if Beane can somehow manage to turn Bobby Crosby into an elite pitcher then I owe him an atta' boy.  That would take some real GM magic.

Can somebody tell me how this deal works in the A's favor...or is even close to equal?  I find it hard to believe there wasn't another team willing to put together a better package.  You could make a case that Harden will be the best pitcher in baseball in the 2nd half.  He's got that level of talent.



Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar
Since: Dec 18, 2006
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:35 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Nice to hear from someone who has seen these people play on a regular basis.  But the unknown is always the guys from the minors, and the A's seem to do a great job evaluating young players and that's where they usually end up winning in the long run.  Especially in the wallet $$$$$.



Reputation: 87
Level: All-Star
Since: Jun 30, 2008
Posted on: July 8, 2008 8:53 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Although I am not an A's fan I do reside in the Bay Area. Although the players that Beane aquired are unknown to me, I find it funny that there are some that say "the A's got bent over" on this one. Several have mentioned Mulder and Hudson, Haren and Swisher, but I haven't seen Barry Zito's name come up yet. Billy Beane is a guru when it comes to getting rid of pitchers and replacing them with young talent. Just ask any Giants fan(Zito). How many of you had ever heard of Justin Duchscherer? He currently leads the ML's starters in ERA. Greg Smith? What I am getting at is Beane doesn't keep pitchers who have or have had arm problems. He has done this before and he will probably do it again. Yes, today this looks like a great trade for the Cubs, and if I was a Cubs fan I would be excited to have Harden. Let's just give it a little time before we evaluate this one. Harden's next start could be his last this season.



Reputation: 55
Level: Pro
Since: May 1, 2007
Posted on: July 8, 2008 9:06 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

The league's most fragile SP going to the league's most cursed and most willing to ride a SP 'till his arm falls off team, sounds like destiny to me!



Reputation: 65
Level: Pro
Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: July 8, 2008 9:18 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Ok what is new. Oakland loves to rebuild. And the problem seems to be that so many people seem to think the General Manager, Billy Beane is wonderful. Oakland got the shaft big time



Reputation: 48
Level: Rookie
Since: Jul 8, 2008
Posted on: July 8, 2008 9:18 pm

To buy or to sell? A's always seem to have answer

Harden's last 2 starts he could barely get the ball above 90.  Not what you want to see from a guy who likes the DL and is usually around the 95-97 range.

The A's have been waiting for Harden to make 5 starts in a row so they could unload him for over 2 years now, He started 6 in a row just now for the first time in 3 or 4 years and they finally got a trading partner.  As an A's fan, all I can say is thank god!  For the Cubs fans, get ready for the next Prior/Wood, so much potential, but also so fragile.

Gaudin, I was never really impressed with.  he was also complaining about playing time, which in recent history with the A's means a quick trade (Byrnes, Halsey, Bradley, etc...).  besides, Smith and Eveland where better options then Gaudin anyway.

And for those who think Beane got hosed, there is still a month left before the deadline, and wouldn't you know it, Beane is now stacked with minor league prospects (first time in years the A's have had anything decent below the major league level to deal with).  I don't think he is done yet, and I bet he has a huge burden off his shoulders with the worrying if Harden was going to stay healthy to make starts 7 and 8 in a row( note to Cubs fans, don't hold your breath for that).

If he makes it back in October after he gets hurt next week the Cubs will be in OK shape, but that is a big IF.



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